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Bank bailouts see markets bounce, ECB surprises with big hike

17 March 2023 By Lachlan Meakin

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Thursdays US session was  risk on led by global banking support after SNB gave a lifeline to Credit Suisse while 11 large US banks stepped up to help First Republic (FRC).

In spite of the backdrop of recent bank turmoil the ECB hiked 50bp surprising the market that had priced in a 25bp hike. Even though the size was larger than expected (though only 1 week ago 50bp was a done deal) this was seen as a “dovish” hike as the ECB gave no forward guidance on future hikes, instead stating they would by taking in meeting by meeting depending on data. This saw the Euro rally modestly, back above the 1.06 level against the USD.

Safe haven flows mostly  unwound, with gold holding steady, while bonds, the JPY and USD declined on improved sentiment.

 

BTCUSD again tested the 25k a t token level where it has encountered major resistance, and again was unable to hold above despite strong rally in  the tech  sector.

WTI Oil also turned around sharply during the session, dropping to a 65 handle early on only to rebound significantly from oversold levels to settle above $68 a barrel on improved risk sentiment.

In economic news, a pretty quiet day ahead with really only US consumer sentiment worth watching.

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