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News & Analysis
News & Analysis

French Elections – The final round

5 May 2017 By GO Markets

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French Elections -The final around

Marine Le Pen, a lawyer, politician and recently the former president of the National Front is facing a young independent centrist untainted by old politics.
Almost a year after forming his party, markets were positively surprised when Macron managed to outcast 2 major political parties that have governed France for more than 30 years. French voters’ appetite for change is understandable following an eventful past couple of years and the candidates with mostly opposing views confirmed it.
The Euro, French bonds and shares lifted sharply following the first-round results. Markets confidently moved with the news that Emmanuel Macron is making it to the second round.

eur forex line charting

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Source: GO Markets MT4

 

Since then, Francois Fillon who secured 19.6% of the first round votes had endorsed Emmanuel Macron while Jean Luc Melenchon refused to endorse any candidates following his defeat. It will be interesting to see the endorsements for Marine Le Pen leading to the final ballots.
We are now in the final few days of the French Presidential election where two political outsiders will face each other in the final round – 7th of May 2017. Recent polls suggest Macron to be on track to win around 60 % of the vote. It appears that Left voters and those from the Right who voted for Francois Fillon have shifted their votes to Macron.

french election results

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Source: The Telegraph

Can we expect the unexpected again this time around?  It will certainly not be a first.
Regardless of the results, we can expect a sharp rise in volatility in the Euro leading to the final day and a big open on Monday. The Euro has been trending up so far indicating a higher chance of a Macron Presidency.
European political risk is weighing heavily on investors at the moment: UK Snap election by Theresa May, the French Election and increased support of Martin Schulz versus Angela Merkel in Germany. The direction of the Euro will be hard to predict over the months but it will certainly be on your GO Markets Watchlist.

-By Deepta Bolaky

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