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Economic Updates

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Economic Updates

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The trading week ahead – Central banks back in action RBA, BoC

Debt ceiling issues finally being put to rest last week saw a broad rally in US and global, with a big move up on Friday seeing the S&P 500 have its best week since March and hit it’s highest level since August last year. With Asian and US futures pointing to positive start to the week the risk on narrative seems to be continuing and w...

June 5, 2023
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US stocks rise to start the new month on debt ceiling optimism, data and Fed speak – NFP ahead

Major US indices broadly rallied in Thursdays session as the US debt ceiling can got kicked another two years down the road after a deal was passed through Congress, US data and Fed speak also supported a narrative shift in expectations of how hawkish the Fed is going to be going forward. The Nasdaq again led gains, (+165 points / 1.28%) , The N...

June 2, 2023
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Hot CPI fails to hold AUDUSD above key level

Australian CPI released today surprised to the upside coming in at 6.8% y/y , well above the consensus of 6.4% which itself was  an increase on March’s figure of 6.3% Coming into the figure futures markets had priced in a measly 2.5% chance of a hike next week by the RBA, that changed dramatically with odds jumping to 18.8% for a 25bp hike ac...

May 31, 2023
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Asian markets looking to open lower after mixed US session

Major US indices finished mixed in the US Tuesday session with AI-mania propping up the Nasdaq to a green finish while continuing debt ceiling jitters kept risk appetite muted for the broader market. Continuing Ai mania saw Nvidia (NVDA) briefly crossed into the $1 trillion market cap club before pulling back later in the session, still up 3% fo...

May 31, 2023
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The Week ahead – Debt ceiling deal, NFP and Aussie CPI – charts to watch

News over the weekend of a tentative debt ceiling deal had been achieved should see investors in the week ahead return to their usual programming of trying to predict the next move from the Federal Reserve, which this week’s jobs data will be a critical component. Late Saturday, the White House and Republican negotiators announced a debt ceili...

May 29, 2023
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US stocks finished mixed – Nasdaq surges on NVDA earnings boost – Gold down again

US indices finished mixed in Thursdays session two up, two down though with an overall positive bias on debt ceiling progress and strong economic data. The Nasdaq easily outperformed as a huge up day from Nvidia (NVDA + 24%) after a positive earnings report saw the tech heavy index surge over 200 points. ­­Strong data was also released...

May 26, 2023
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US stocks sink as debt ceiling impasse continues to weigh on investors, RBNZ rate decision today

Major US indices were lower on Tuesday, extending to the downside through the session, as debt limit negotiations extend further to the edge after little progress was made in further talks between the White House and Republican negotiators. The Nasdaq slumped 160 points 1.26% as the risk off tone and tightening economic conditions hit growth stocks...

May 24, 2023
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AU and Asian markets open in the green after mixed lead in from Wall St

The ASX200, Nikkei and Hang Seng are all looking to open in the positive after a mostly positive lead from Wall St with all major US indices but the Dow eking out gains despite ongoing debt ceiling headwinds and some hawkish Fed speak. The Russell 2000  saw strong advances, aided by a bounce in regional banks with PacWest (PACW) surging after anno...

May 23, 2023
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The Week Ahead – RBNZ, UK and US inflation and debt ceiling impasse headline risk events

With Junes FOMC policy meeting still up in the air as far as markets are pricing in, FOMC minutes and US PCE core inflation figures (reportedly the Fed’s favoured measure) released this week will be closely watched and likely go a long way to settling market participants mind as to what the next move from the fed will be. From the UK inflation da...

May 22, 2023
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US equities rally, dollar and yields surge on data and hawkish Fed speak

US indices were firmly higher on Thursday with a Big Tech bias, with the Nasdaq outperforming , rallying 1.5%, lifted by the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and particularly Netflix (NFLX), which saw near double-digit strength after a positive ad tier subscriber update. Strong data releases (good news is good news now?) and a more haw...

May 19, 2023
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US stocks surge on bounce in regional banks and debt ceiling optimism

Major US indices finished solidly in the green in a broad rally as risk appetite returned to the market amid optimism debt ceiling negotiations and a reassuring update from regional bank Western Alliance (WAL) which reported growth in its deposits. The Dow was up over 400 points, or 1.24% while the Russell 2000 outperformed, up over 2%, flying on a...

May 18, 2023
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US equities finish in the red after retail sales miss and ongoing debt ceiling concerns

US stocks finished mostly lower in what was a risk-off session amid mixed data releases from the US and ongoing debt ceiling concerns weighing on risk markets. A lackluster forecast from retail giant (and Dow component) Home Depot (HD) also didn’t help. The Dow led losses, ending up down over 300 points while the Nasdaq was the least worst of ...

May 17, 2023
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US stocks finish in the green on weak data and regional bank short squeeze

Major US indices finished broadly higher after weak Empire State manufacturing figures fed into the “bad news is good news” for equities narrative, and a surge higher in regional bank stocks allayed fears of further crises in that sector in the short term. The Russell 2000, being the home of most of these mid-sized banks outperformed, finishing...

May 16, 2023
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The Week ahead – US retail sales, jobs data from UK and Australia, RBA minutes.

Global markets enter the 3rd week of May against the backdrop of rising market concern regarding the ongoing US debt ceiling impasse as well as ongoing risks in the US banking system, both of which dampening risk sentiment and seeing markets rangebound as they await a solid catalyst to get moving. US 1 year Credit Default Swap price spiking on d...

May 15, 2023
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US stocks mostly lower as bank woes sour risk sentiment, BoE hikes rates

US indices closed the session mixed with outperformance in Nasdaq, propped up by Google(GOOG) as their continuing I/O event bolstered their stock price. However, other major indices finished solidly in the red, with the Dow down over 200 points, dragged down by Disney, and the S&P500 and Russell 2000 suffering from further banking woes after Pa...

May 12, 2023
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