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Economic Updates

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Economic Updates

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Is Credit Suisse running out of Credit?

This year has not been kind to the domestic and global economy. The financial woes keep rolling in, this time an old issue has rear its head with one of largest global investment banks seeing its share price drop significantly. That institution in question, is stalwart Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse’s share price is down more than 70% – from 1...

October 20, 2022
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Qantas shares price lift off, but Dividends on hold for FY22

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN:ASX) is the flagship carrier of Australia and the country's largest airline by fleet size. The company has had a resurgence in 2022 and the share price has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic. The “Flying Kangaroo” as it’s known throughout the industry, said that it would report an underlying pre-tax profit ...

October 18, 2022
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US stocks rally, Dollar slides as markets turns risk on amid UK fiscal U-turn and positive US earnings

US stocks soared in Monday’s session in an epic short squeeze as markets turned risk-on after new UK Chancellor pivoted on proposed tax cuts that had roiled UK bond markets and Strong bank earnings from the US calmed recession fears. The Dow Jones finished the session up 1.86% , with the tech and growth heavy Nasdaq outperforming, up 3.43% und...

October 18, 2022
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Natural Gas – Technical Analysis

Natural gas has fallen roughly 30% since the start of September, and has now landed on a daily trend line. Taking a look at the last couple of weeks of price action, natural gas has been consolidating between $6.5 to $7.3 for the last 3 weeks as it decides on the next move. Analysing the area that natural gas is currently sitting on, there i...

October 18, 2022
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The Week Ahead – Volatility set to continue with key inflation readings from UK, Canada, NZ, EU and Japan.

Volatility in markets is set to continue this week with a slew of inflation figures from Canada to New Zealand being released, along with Australian employment figure and the minutes from the last RBA meeting where they surprised markets with “dovish” rate hike. Last week saw the markets react violently to the hot CPI figure out of the US, w...

October 17, 2022
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US equities surge after shrugging off hot CPI figure in chaotic session

US stocks ripped higher after a hot CPI figure saw the S&P 500 open over 2% down from the previous close only to finish up 2.6%. This came despite an Inflation figure that was higher than analysts expectations (8.1% YoY)  at an 8.2% increase from September last year and a 40 year high. S&P 500: This is only the 5th time in histor...

October 14, 2022
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US stocks end slightly lower in a choppy session after hot PPI data and mixed FOMC minutes.

US markets mostly tread water ahead of todays CPI figure, equities and the USD traded in a fairly tight range, a lack of expected chaos out of the UK and what were considered a mixed FOMC minutes saw markets in a holding pattern as traders await US inflation data. Though a modest drop as compared to recent times, it still marked the 6th down day...

October 13, 2022
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The week ahead – Big US data in the spotlight as the markets still dance to the Feds tune.

The first week of Q4 proved to be a volatile one in global markets. US equities got off the best start to a quarter since 2009 (Best start of Q4 since 2002) on Fed pivot hopes, only to decline sharply in the second half of the week as those hopes faded on the back of a blockbuster Non-Farm employment report before the market opened on Friday. &n...

October 10, 2022
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Technical Analysis – Retracement for US Dollar

Starting from the weekly timeframe, US Dollar Index has been consistently trending upwards for the last 16 months. Using the 9 exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly time frame, we can see the US Dollar retracing back to the EMA, bouncing off of it, then continuing with the trend, as seen below: Looking at the structure of the uptren...

October 7, 2022
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US stocks dump and pump as strong data cools Fed-pivot hopes

US equities declined after a record two day winning streak, a volatile and choppy session ultimately ending with the S&P500 down 7.65 points (0.2%) The Nasdaq (NDX100)  saw the biggest swing, from down almost 2.5% at the European close, all the way back up to +0.5% until a very late session sell-off saw it finish down 0.25% The chopp...

October 6, 2022
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Risk on continues as equities, Bitcoin and commodities pump, USD dumps

Q4 has continued with a bang in Tuesdays session with US stocks posting their biggest two day gain since April 2020 and the best start to a quarter since 2009 (Best start of Q4 since 2002!) The re-pricing of risk assets comes on the back of the view that Central banks will be a little less aggressive in their rate hiking cycle, with expectations...

October 5, 2022
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Stocks begin Q4 with a bang as Fed pivot dreams see yields lower

US stocks started with a Q4 bounce after a dismal Q3 helped by softer PMI data and perhaps extreme oversold technical conditions. Bond  yields drifting  lower as the market priced in a possible and highly speculative Fed pivot also bolstered equities and other risk assets. One big exception was Tesla (TSLA)  cratering over 8% on a big miss on de...

October 4, 2022
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Stocks tumble again as BoE inspired rally fizzles

US stocks again were heavily pressured, selling off hard into the last day of the month and quarter as Wednesdays rare BoE inspired positive session proved to be a dead cat bounce thus far. Tech led the sell-off after a rare downgrade of Apple (AAPL) from Bank of America added to tech woes with many of the heavyweights underperforming as Microso...

September 30, 2022
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Bank of England, Stuck between a rock and hard place

The UK financial system has been under extreme pressure from rising inflation and recessionary pressures. It culminated in the GBP reaching record lows and a UK government bond crisis that could have almost brought down the system. So why is the Bank of England now buying government bonds after attempting to stem inflation and raise interest rates....

September 29, 2022
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US stocks extend sell-off, yields spike, GBP flash crashes

Wall St extended its sell-off in Mondays session, continuing on from Friday (albeit not as pronounced) against a backdrop of spiking bond yields, growth concerns and turmoil in the FX market. The S&P 500 closed at it’s lowest since late 2020 and the Dow slipped into bear market territory as investors fled risk assets. The USD was again dom...

September 27, 2022
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